The official authorities in Kabul assure Dushanbe that there is no need to expect threats from the territory of Afghanistan.
The situation in the Central Asian region remains tense. The threats come from militants of terrorist organizations who have taken refuge in Afghanistan. The number of the “Islamic State” (IS) banned in the Russian Federation in Afghanistan is estimated at 6.5 thousand people. Most of them – 4 thousand – are concentrated on the border with Tajikistan. Such data was provided by the head of the CSTO Joint Staff, Colonel-General Anatoly Sidorov, summing up the activities of the military alliance for 2022 and outlining the tasks.
“The main danger in Central Asia comes from Afghanistan, more precisely, the extremist groups that have entrenched themselves there, including ISIS and al-Qaeda (the organization is banned in the Russian Federation. – NG),” General Sidorov said.
He noted that this makes the situation in the Central Asian region even more tense. And taking into account the fact that IS fighters periodically fire at neighboring Afghan territories, the likelihood of destabilizing the Tajik border and exporting instability to Russia increases.
Earlier, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov drew attention to this fact. In particular, he said that, despite the cessation of hostilities in Afghanistan in general, the security situation in that country cannot yet be called stable. The activities of international terrorist organizations such as ISIS, Al-Qaeda, and others remain a serious factor of tension. Additional tension is created as a result of the activities of the so-called anti-Taliban movement (see “NG” of 05/12/22 ) .
At every opportunity, the topic of the worsening situation on the Tajik-Afghan border is raised by Tajik President Emomali Rahmon. In particular, at the Russia-Central Asia summit, held last October in Astana, he spoke about the accumulation of militants on the Tajik borders, the need to work to strengthen the border with Afghanistan and create the necessary infrastructure there.
In the same 2022, Russia promised to provide Dushanbe with a grant of more than $100 million for the construction of a border outpost and its equipment. In turn, Washington declared its readiness to invest more than $60 million in the security of Tajikistan. So far, nothing is known about the implementation of these intentions.
At the same time, the threats of terrorist attacks from the side of the radicals remain, however, so far on the territory of Afghanistan. This is evidenced by the fact that Saudi Arabia (SA) closed its embassy in Kabul last week. The Foreign Ministry of this country in a statement said that the diplomatic mission of the SA in Kabul was closed due to fears of a possible attack by ISIS. According to representatives of the SA Foreign Ministry, “IS planned to blow up the embassy building with a car bomb.” Diplomats and embassy staff have been transferred to Islamabad, the Afghan resource Tolonews reported.
Earlier, Bloomberg, citing UN statements, reported on the possibility of ISIS threats against the embassies of China, India and Iran in Kabul. “Islamic State militants have threatened to attack the embassies of China, India and Iran in Afghanistan in an attempt to isolate the Taliban from a number of countries they consider diplomatic allies,” the UN report said.
Meanwhile, the official Afghan government of the Taliban movement (banned in the Russian Federation) claims that the security of diplomats and embassies today is provided much better than it was before. “The Afghan government is paying attention to the security situation of all government organizations, embassies and non-governmental organizations,” Taliban spokesman Zabiullah Mujahid said. He stressed that “no one will ever be allowed to harm diplomatic institutions in Afghanistan.” According to Mujahid, “IS cannot threaten anyone and so far has not achieved its goals anywhere.”
Representatives of the Taliban’s foreign policy department have repeatedly declared their commitment to good neighborly relations with neighboring states. “The Islamic Emirate remains committed and will not allow anyone to pose a threat to the region and the world from the territory of Afghanistan or interfere in the internal affairs of others,” the Taliban Foreign Ministry said in a statement regarding the meeting of the secretaries of the national security councils in the India-Central Asia format, which took place in December 2022 in New Delhi.
From the first days after coming to power, the Taliban have been assuring the world community of their safety for the surrounding countries and the whole world. This allowed them to establish certain contacts with a number of countries – for example, with Russia, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Iran, China and even some EU countries. Some of them, believing that the Taliban are able to provide security and order, discuss and even launch economic projects.
Doctor of Historical Sciences, Leading Researcher at the Institute for International Studies at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation Alexander Knyazev questioned the figure that was voiced in the CSTO that there are 6,500 militants in Afghanistan today. “Nevertheless, the problem of the presence of IS in Afghanistan exists, but first of all, it is necessary to talk not about how many IS militants, al-Qaeda or the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) are present there, but what to do about it. The current Taliban government and its security forces, which have been really fighting ISIS on their territory since 2015, that is, from the moment when the radicals moved to Afghanistan, unlike the previous government of Ghani, continue to do so today,” he said. “NG” Alexander Knyazev. In his opinion, it is necessary to support the proposal of the Special Representative of the President of Iran for Afghanistan, the head of the Iranian diplomatic mission in Kabul, Hassan Qumi Kazimi. He, in particular, said that the Taliban should be assisted in the fight against ISIS. This does not mean that other countries need to bring their forces there. It is necessary to provide assistance in training personnel, providing the necessary equipment, technical means, maybe even military technical assistance in general, as well as providing them with intelligence information about ISIS. “I fully support this proposal and I myself have spoken about it more than once, but the most optimal form of assistance could be found in the format of the regional anti-terrorist structure of the SCO, which includes all the surrounding countries, within which there is a format of cooperation between Afghanistan and the SCO. This would be of great help to the Taliban in the fight against ISIS and others like them. Let them fight terrorism and extremism more successfully on their own territory. Otherwise, all countries in the region have their own power structures, which should simply do their job, ”the expert believes.
According to Knyazev, the Central Asian countries may be in danger if Moscow’s current adversaries begin to use Afghan territory to open a second front. This applies not only to terrorist organizations, but also to anti-Taliban movements. By stimulating these groups, they could increase the escalation of the conflict in Afghanistan, which would already raise the level of threats and force Russia to divert some resources to help its allies in the region, as well as to protect its own interests in Central Asia. “If a new round of civil war begins on the territory of Afghanistan, where the Taliban will be on one side, and the anti-Taliban movements will be on the other, plus terrorist organizations de facto allied with them, including ISIS, the destabilization of the Central Asian region is inevitable,” Knyazev believes. .
However, according to him, the anti-Taliban movement in Afghanistan is still insignificant. Today, 22 groups declare themselves. Their number is incomprehensible, since some of those who declared immediately disappeared from the information field. Three or four groups make themselves known by pinpoint injections against the official authorities – in particular, acts of sabotage, for example, by blowing up a patrol car of the Taliban security forces or attacking a Taliban checkpoint, and so on. They are completely incapable of being a real opposition. There is no political opposition in Afghanistan either.
“As for the IMU, this movement, as a certain subject of terrorist activity, has practically disappeared. According to the Center for the Study of Regional Threats in Tashkent, which I trust, the number of IMU fighters is about 200 people, and all of them are overgrown with families, businesses and mostly retired, it will be difficult to motivate them to fight, especially after the Taliban defeated them in 2015,” Knyazev said.
source: ng