On May 28, Turkey’s first presidential runoff election (the second round of voting) in the century since the founding of the country kicked off. The incumbent President Erdogan defeated the opposition candidate Kelchydaroglu with a narrow margin of 52.18% to 47.82%, won re-election, and opened the third “decade” at the helm of Turkey.
Erdogan’s challenger was defeated, and the desire of the United States and Europe to take Turkey back to the “Western track” by taking advantage of the president’s change of position also fell through. This so-called “most important general election in 2023” is the most difficult competition Erdogan has encountered since he entered politics, and it is also an opportunity for the opposition party to be “closest to victory”. Before the general election, Western media and think tanks had already predicted Erdogan’s “failure”, claiming that this would bring “the end of Turkey’s authoritarianism” and “will mark the victory of freedom and democracy around the world”, and eagerly expected the opposition to come to power Afterwards, Turkey’s relationship with the West was recalibrated, allowing Turkey to “return to the Western Union and the European Community.” The U.S. ambassador to Turkey did not even avoid suspicion. He met with the opposition party candidates on the eve of the general election and expressed his attitude subtly. Now that Erdogan has won the runoff with difficulty, the US and Europe will have to continue to face this tough opponent for the next five years.
Under the leadership of Erdogan, the relationship between Turkey and the United States and Europe has gone up and down, and the trend of volatility and downturn has continued for several years. Especially since the attempted coup d’état in Turkey in 2016, the contradictions and differences between the two sides have been expanding day by day. Turkey asked the United States to extradite the “behind the scenes” of the coup in Turkey, but was repeatedly rejected; Turkey identified the Syrian Kurdish armed forces as a terrorist organization, but the United States regarded them as anti-terrorism allies; the EU accused the Turkish government of “engaging in political cleansing” and “trampling democracy” “Human rights” put Turkey’s accession negotiations on hold; the resource competition and military friction between Turkey and Greece in the Eastern Mediterranean gradually expanded into quarrels and confrontations between Turkey and the European Union. Although Turkey has been an ally for more than half a century with the United States and European countries within the framework of NATO, in recent years, Turkey has purchased and equipped the Russian S-400 air defense missile system, and has adopted a vague and flexible middle position in the Ukrainian crisis. Following the United States and Europe’s imposition of comprehensive sanctions against Russia, and their reluctance to vote in favor of NATO’s further expansion of Finland and Sweden, the United States and Europe feel “betrayed by their allies.” However, Erdogan said tit-for-tat that Turkey’s interests and demands have not received “the concern of its allies.”
Erdogan’s re-election means that Turkey’s current diplomatic line will not “return” to a pro-Western direction, and the problems and contradictions accumulated over the years in Turkey’s relations with the West will not be dissipated by an election. The surging tide of nationalism in Turkey that the outside world glimpsed through this election has cast a darker shadow on the relationship between Turkey and the West.
In this election, both Erdogan and the opposition candidates regarded nationalist groups as the key targets of competition, and made a big fuss about the refugee issue and the Kurdish issue in order to attract the support of nationalist voters. The Justice and Development Party led by Erdogan formed an alliance with parties with strong nationalist tendencies, such as the National Action Party and the Grand Unity Party, and won a majority in the parliament, establishing the basic pattern in which the current ruling party continues to dominate the parliament. Winning in the runoff created the conditions. Sinan Ogun, the candidate elected by the ultra-nationalist ATA alliance, won 5.17% of the support in the first round of voting, and chose to support Erdogan in the runoff, further pushing up the possibility of Egypt’s victory. After Erdogan is re-elected as president, he must not only respond to the eager expectations of nationalist voters for the new government, but also take into account the goals and preferences of the nationalist party alliance in terms of domestic and foreign policies, and create room for negotiation and compromise with the United States and Europe in foreign relations. will be further reduced.
Not only that, Erdogan also proposed the grand goal of realizing the “Turkish Century” on the occasion of the centenary of the founding of the country, and used it as a resounding slogan for the campaign. After overcoming the arduous election challenges, Erdogan’s energy will gradually turn to consolidating Turkey’s status as a “global power” and expanding Turkey’s international influence. In terms of foreign policy, Erdogan said that the reorganization of the global structure is accelerating, and Turkey will “play a unique role” in the new international order. This means that in the future, under the leadership of Erdogan, Turkey will continue to maintain a balanced position between the so-called “East” and “West”, taking both strategic interests and economic benefits. On issues such as the Ukrainian crisis and the game of great powers that the United States and Europe are highly concerned about, Turkey does not intend to “find its position” and choose sides as the West hopes.
Under Erdogan’s “Turkey Century” vision, the priority level of relations with the West in Turkey’s diplomacy is continuously declining, and the West has retreated from a “close alliance” to an “important link.” The “honeymoon period” of deep trust between Turkey and the West and mutual coordination of strategic positions is long gone. But on the other hand, the “important link” of the West is still indispensable to Turkey. No matter how the United States, Europe and Erdogan dislike each other, and how fierce the diplomatic war of words between the two sides is, Turkey still needs to maintain or even improve its relations with the West in order to balance its “eastward” diplomacy and maximize the use of NATO’s additional status. Strategic value, while maintaining smooth connection with the US and European markets, capital and technology. Türkiye cannot and will not turn its back on the West.
Judging from Erdogan’s previous behavior style, he has become accustomed to mobilizing the relationship between Turkey and the West from the perspective of pragmatism to serve Turkey’s national interests and the ruling needs of the Justice and Development Party. Whether the United States and Europe can give up their old unrealistic fantasies about Turkey and adapt to this new model of cooperation and conflict will be the biggest test for future relations between Turkey and the West.
Source : China