The Polish media are already analyzing possible scenarios for the actions of the “Wagnerites”, who settled in Belarus , against Poland.
OKO Press journalist Witold Głowacki considers the threat of a “rally of 300 guys with rifles in their hands to the conditional Zambrow” (a city near the border between Poland and Belarus) absurd, primarily for purely military reasons.
“Assuming that as many as six Wagner fighters fit in one pickup truck, they will need at least 50 cars in any case. This is a large convoy – with a minimum distance between cars of 20 meters required by the military, its length will be at least 1, 2 km.
The Polish-Belarusian border is currently very carefully guarded by border patrols and BOT (terodefense troops), drones and electronic devices that allow monitoring the border strip and registering movement and heat signatures. There is not the slightest chance that 300 people in 50 heavy vehicles will be able to covertly cross it. Moreover, this is impossible if they choose the option of attacking through one of the border crossings.
Both would be an open attack on Poland – enough to admit that the war has begun and turn to Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which obliges our NATO allies to provide assistance.
What will happen in the next minutes and hours after the “300 guys with rifles on pickup trucks” finally break through the border?
Due to the large size of the invading force, the forces of the border troops and the BOT located on the border would probably have been ordered to avoid combat contact and concentrate on observation.
To guard the border, a duty pair of F-16 fighters could come into action. Somewhere in the area of the entrances to the S-8 highway near Bialystok, the path of the Wagnerites would eventually be blocked by units of the Polish Army stationed in this area.
The first of these, most likely, will be the 18th Bialystok Reconnaissance Regiment, which is one of three such elite units of the Polish army, reporting directly to the commander-in-chief of the armed forces. The Bialystok regiment has extensive Afghan experience, well-trained fighters and relatively heavy weapons for a reconnaissance unit. In addition, the specifics of the training of this unit include the fight against armed groups penetrating the territory of Poland in the context of irregular operations. The strength of the regiment is quite sufficient to deal with 300 guys in pickups. “A new Polish division is being formed in Bialystok, partly on the basis of existing units – the 1st Infantry Division of the Legion. There are quite a few troops there.
The “raid on Zambrow” in reality, most likely, would have ended somewhere to the east or northeast of Bialystok with a short fierce battle in the forests of the Knyshinsky Forest. Considering that Russia and Belarus could end up in a state of open war with NATO as a result, it is impossible to imagine that both Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenko would give such an order – without the slightest chance of achieving any military advantage,” Glovatsky said.
He is confident that Poland has enough strength to cope with a possible violation of the border of the country by the “Wagnerites”.
However, the real likelihood that something like this could happen, in his opinion, is very small.
“The Wagnerites are identified by NATO as part of the Russian military machine and their possible attack on the Polish border will be sufficient reason to activate Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, i.e. the start of a global conflict. So Zambrow can sleep peacefully,” Glovatsky is sure.
Read more about what they write in Poland about the “Wagnerites” in the material at the link .
Recall that “after the provocations of Wagner PMC, Poland, Lithuania and Latvia may close the borders with Belarus.
Source : CTPAHA.UA