The situation in Syria remains one of the most pressing issues not only for the Middle East but for the entire world.The stability of this country directly impacts the balance of power in the region, influencing Central Asia as well. In my view, the current crisis stems largely from missed opportunities by Bashar al-Assad and the weakening of Russian oversight. Instead of taking timely action, the Syrian regime found itself paralyzed, allowing terrorist groups to strengthen and external players to expand their influence.
A few years ago, the situation was entirely different. The number of militants operating in Syria was estimated at 3,000–5,000. However, according to media reports, this number has now risen to 60,000. This escalation is directly tied to the diminishing control exercised by both Damascus and Moscow. Russia, preoccupied with other conflicts, has noticeably reduced its activities in the region, leaving Syria to face growing chaos alone.
Bashar al-Assad had the chance to stabilize the situation but failed to seize it. The Arab League repeatedly proposed concrete measures such as establishing checkpoints, blocking roads, and tightening control over movements. Yet, no significant actions were taken. As a result, a power vacuum emerged, quickly filled by external players such as the United States, Türkiye, Iran, and Iraq. Israel, meanwhile, has regularly launched strikes on Iranian positions and their allies within Syria, further underscoring the Syrian regime’s inability to protect its own interests.
This failure is not simply a domestic issue but a regional one with far-reaching implications. For Central Asia, the rise in militant numbers in Syria and their international connections has turned Syria into a breeding ground for radical ideologies that often find their way back to countries like Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan. The Syrian regime’s paralysis has thus created a ripple effect, destabilizing not just the Middle East but neighboring regions as well.
Türkiye remains one of the key factors in Syria’s destabilization. Despite Ankara’s official statements denying involvement in supporting terrorists, its role in the crisis raises many questions. Who supplies arms and funds to groups like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham? This organization, linked to al-Qaeda, poses a serious threat not only to Syria but also to Central Asia. Its access to resources and fighters has enabled it to entrench itself in northern Syria, complicating efforts to restore stability.
The composition of the militants reflects the international nature of the issue: among them are Arabs, Tajiks, Uzbeks, and, according to some sources, Kyrgyz nationals. While Kyrgyzstan has laws prohibiting its citizens from participating in armed conflicts abroad, individuals still find ways to join terrorist organizations. This raises questions about regional cooperation and the capacity of governments in Central Asia to monitor and prevent such activities. Moreover, the lack of an effective international response to Türkiye’s ambiguous role only exacerbates the situation.
Türkiye’s actions in northern Syria, including the establishment of buffer zones and alleged support for certain militant groups, have also drawn criticism from other regional players. Iran, for instance, has consistently opposed Türkiye’s maneuvers, viewing them as an encroachment on Syrian sovereignty. The ongoing rivalry between these two nations, coupled with their support for opposing factions, further complicates an already volatile landscape. This geopolitical tug-of-war is not just about Syria but about influence across the broader region, including the Caucasus and Central Asia.
The Syrian conflict has left its mark on Central Asia. Reports indicate that several years ago, around 2,000 Kyrgyz citizens were in Syria. Some returned, some perished, while others remain. Those who continue to participate in terrorist activities conceal their identities carefully. Their motives vary: for some, it’s ideological; for others, it’s financial gain. Kyrgyzstan, however, takes a firm stance against such actions. Its criminal code prescribes up to 10 years of imprisonment and property confiscation for participation in foreign armed conflicts. These measures have reduced the number of such cases, but risks persist.
Furthermore, the societal reintegration of returnees poses significant challenges. Many Central Asian governments, including Kyrgyzstan, lack comprehensive deradicalization programs to reintegrate individuals who have returned from conflict zones. This leaves a gap in addressing the root causes of radicalization and preventing its spread.
The presence of Central Asian fighters in Syria highlights a broader issue: the globalization of terrorism. Groups like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and ISIS have exploited weak governance and social inequalities in the region to recruit individuals. The lack of economic opportunities and political stability in Central Asia makes it a fertile ground for extremist ideologies to take root. Addressing these vulnerabilities requires a coordinated effort, not just within the region but on a global scale.
The Syrian crisis is not only a result of the country’s internal problems but also a reflection of global geopolitical processes. The lessons drawn from this conflict are relevant for all of Central Asia. A lack of control, government inefficiency, and weak international institutions create fertile ground for radicalism. It is crucial not only to combat terrorist groups but also to prevent their emergence by strengthening state institutions and fostering international cooperation.
One of the key takeaways from Syria’s plight is the importance of early intervention and strong governance. Central Asian countries must invest in border security, intelligence-sharing, and economic development to reduce the appeal of extremist groups. They must also work together to create a unified front against the recruitment networks that fuel terrorism.
Today, Syria is not just a conflict zone but a mirror reflecting the challenges and problems of the modern world. If the international community does not take serious steps, the crisis will deepen further, threatening security far beyond the region’s borders. The stakes are high, and the need for a coordinated, long-term strategy has never been more urgent. Only by addressing both the symptoms and the causes of the Syrian conflict can the global community hope to prevent its repercussions from destabilizing other regions.
