Despite a revolt among a handful of hard-line Republicans, a bipartisan deal to raise the US debt ceiling is set to reach the floor of the House of Representatives for a vote on Wednesday evening.
If a majority of legislators in the chamber approve, the bill will move on to the US Senate. Here’s how the drama is playing out on Capitol Hill and a guide to what comes next.
After months of negotiations, President Joe Biden and Republican Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy finally reached a deal to raise the amount of money the US can borrow, avoid a default on the national debt, and limit federal spending for the next two years.
Now the pair are busy selling their weekend agreement to Congress. First up is the US House of Representatives, which is scheduled to hold a vote on the agreement on Wednesday evening. Republican and Democratic leaders there believe that even with some defections on the left and right, they have the votes to pass a bill – perhaps by a comfortable margin.
The legislation then moves to the Senate, which will pose new challenges to the agreement. Unlike the Republican-majority House, Democrats control the upper chamber with 51 out of its 100 seats. According to parliamentary rules, 60 votes are required to approve most bills – so some combination of Democratic and Republican votes will be needed.
Those rules also offer individual senators broad powers to slow consideration of legislation for days. With the date when the US will hit its borrowing limit estimated by the US Treasury to be Monday 5 June, that leaves little margin for error or delay.
One conservative Republican, Mike Lee of Utah, has threatened to use “every procedural tool” to slow consideration of the deal. He, and other recalcitrant Republicans, may be mollified if Senate leadership allows the chamber to vote on changes to the deal.
If any of those changes are approved, however, it could threaten the carefully negotiated balance in the legislation and would almost certainly push final approval past 5 June.
Both Democratic and Republican leaders in the Senate are on board with the deal as it has been negotiated, and will be working to ensure that a final vote is taken quickly and the debt-limit deal reaches Mr Biden’s desk for signature into law before a default can occur.
For the moment financial markets appear to have calmed as the prospect recedes of the global economic chaos that would result from the world’s biggest economy defaulting on its $31.4 trillion (£25tn) debt.
That could change, however, the closer the US approaches that Monday debt-limit deadline without significant progress in Congress. In 2011, the credit rating agency Standard & Poor’s downgraded the US credit rating when similar brinksmanship pushed the nation close to its borrowing limit.
The path to selling the deal has been a rocky one so far. It became clear on Tuesday that some conservative hard-liners in the House would oppose the agreement.
At a press conference held on the steps of the US Capitol earlier on Tuesday, 11 members of the ultra-conservative House Freedom Caucus railed against what they viewed as insufficient spending cuts and budget limitations in the compromise legislation.
“This deal fails completely,” said congressman Scott Perry, the leader of the group. He said those who stood with him “will be absolutely opposed to the deal and will do everything in our power to stop it”.
They also dodged when asked whether they would call for Mr McCarthy’s removal – a step that would escalate the rift forming among Republicans in the House.
“No matter what happens, there’s going to be a reckoning for what just occurred unless we stop this bill by tomorrow,” congressman Chip Roy of Texas, another Freedom Caucus member, warned.
There may also be some defections in both the House and the Senate from left-wing Democrats, who have complained about how the proposed budget cuts fall exclusively on social programmes and objected to the new work requirements on some recipients of low-income aid.
The Democratic hard-liners, however, have been less organised – and less vocal in their objections – than their conservative counterparts.
Source : BBC
