In Poland, they are actively discussing the statements that come from Belarus about the intentions of the “Wagnerites” to go on an excursion “to Warsaw and Rzeszow.” As well as hints at possible provocations and sabotage by PMCs on the border and on the territory of the country, which are voiced by Belarusian pro-government experts.
Most experts and analysts do not believe in such a development of events, as they believe that such actions are absolutely meaningless from the point of view of Russia and Lukashenka.
Firstly, there are too few “Vagerovtsy” to deliver any serious troubles to the Poles. Even if up to 10,000 Prigozhin’s mercenaries accumulate in Belarus, they will not be able to capture even any border town, not to mention the land (“Suvalka”) corridor to the Kaliningrad region. That is, from a military point of view, the Poles are not afraid of the “Wagnerites”.
Secondly, in view of the foregoing, the Poles believe that such actions will be absolute idiocy on the part of the Russian Federation and Belarus, since they will not give any military effect, but their activity can be perceived as an attack on a NATO country and provoke a war between the Alliance and Russia.
Therefore, statements with allusions to the provocations of the “Wagnerites” in Poland (especially in the opposition camp) are often perceived in the context of the upcoming parliamentary elections in the country in October. It is believed that such an injection is very beneficial for the ruling Law and Justice party, which, under the slogan “rally the nation around the government in the face of a threat from the east,” can increase its rating. Or even introduce a state of emergency and postpone the elections (the authorities refute such intentions).
At the same time, it cannot be said that Warsaw does not pay attention to these threats at all.
There is a transfer of troops to the border with Belarus, and yesterday Polish Interior Minister Mariusz Kaminsky said that the government could decide to completely close its border with Belarus if there were serious incidents involving Wagner PMC mercenaries nearby.
The Minister made it clear that in this case, other NATO members – Lithuania and Latvia – will also close their borders with Belarus.
“If we decide that this is the right answer for the moment, we will come to the complete isolation of Belarus,” Kaminsky said.
And Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak said that Poland would double the size of the army.
For information on how Poland reacts to information about the preparation of sabotage by the “Wagnerites”, read the article “Countries”.
“More blackmail than real threat”
Putin and Lukashenko, we recall, allowed Poland to intervene in the war – including against supposedly Belarus – and “consequences” in this case (Poland and Ukraine denied such intentions). And Lukashenka allowed the “excursion” of the Wagnerites through the territory of Poland. After that, pro-government Belarusian experts said that the “Wagnerites” could arrange sabotage on the territory of a neighboring country. In particular – in the area of the Rzeszow airport.
This, of course, did not go unnoticed by the Polish media. But most commentators do not believe in the seriousness of these threats and perceive them as some kind of information campaign by Putin and Lukashenka for their own purposes.
“This is more of an information attack and blackmail than a real threat, because the mercenaries of the Wagner group are still far from the Polish border. According to Western intelligence services, there are only about 3,500 of them in Belarus. However, it is planned to move up to 10,000 people there. anyway, it won’t be a critical figure. If mercenaries suddenly attacked Poland today, there would probably be nothing left of them,” Belarusian political scientist Valery Karbalevich says in an interview with Gazeta Wyborcza.
Moreover, if this threat becomes a reality, the consequences will be unpredictable, since it will become an attack on a NATO member country, Polish media write.
And they recall that in the history of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, Article 5 of the treaty, which states that an attack on one NATO member is an attack on all, was applied only once, after the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks in the United States.
Consequently, the actions of the “Wagnerites” in Poland would create a threat of a direct war between the Russian Federation and NATO. Which, according to Polish experts, neither Putin nor Lukashenka will agree to.
“In Lukashenka’s place, I would not send the Wagner group to Poland, because Belarus will suffer in response, since military intervention may take place there. I don’t believe that Lukashenka, reading from a piece of paper in front of Putin, who is trying to slyly suppress a smile, is serious believes in the possibility of such a scenario, but if this happened, Lukashenka would become the first victim of this adventure,” Grigory Nizhnikov, a researcher at the Finnish Institute of International Relations, believes.
Kamil Klysinski of the Center for Eastern Studies in Warsaw believes that Wagner mercenaries will not be able to attack checkpoints on the Polish-Belarusian border due to the lack of heavy weapons and equipment.
However, he says in an interview with the Rzeczpospolita, the presence of mercenaries in Belarus carries a certain risk for Poland. At the same time, he adds: “But first of all, these are risks for Lukashenka, and he knows it.”
Behind Lukashenka’s threat about an “expedition” of the Wagner group to Poland is a request to Putin to do something with this group in Belarus.
“I don’t think Lukashenka is happy with their presence in his country. He wants to control everything, especially in the security sphere. And experienced mercenaries are difficult to control,” Klysinski said.
“It is very difficult to keep Prigozhin’s mercenaries with their skills, with their, to put it mildly, specific way of life. Getting rid of them is the biggest problem for Belarus now,” the expert believes.
Moreover, he doubts that Prigozhin and his mercenaries will now carry out any order from Putin. The June events showed that it is an independent structure that “gets involved in any adventures only when it is beneficial for it.”
The newspaper Rzeczpospolita (Rzeczpospolita) is also skeptical about threats of provocations by the Wagner group on the border.
“This is a threat to Poland only in the Russian media and propaganda, which our propagandists, our politicians widely use to intimidate the Poles. This group is in chaos,” the newspaper writes.
There is an opinion that Putin’s game, designed to level the effect after Prigozhin’s rebellion, may be behind the threats.
Valery Karbalevich believes that Lukashenka wanted to make it clear that the mercenaries intend to attack Poland, but he stops them.
“It was the most important part of the performance that the audience had to see,” the political scientist said.
Grigory Nizhnikov also got the impression of a “certain scenario.” Because two days after the rebellion of the head of the Wagner group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, Lukashenka probably “said too much”, received a reprimand from Moscow and, as a result, spoke out “within the framework imposed by the Kremlin,” the expert believes.
In addition, according to Karbalevich, Putin is trying to show the Russian audience “how cleverly he outwitted everyone again.”
“Prigozhin’s coup attempt seriously shocked Putin. The Wagner group, which created problems for Russia, was transferred to Belarus to threaten Poland. Putin “skillfully” got rid of his problem, using it against his enemy,” says Karbalevich.
“Rally to Zambrow 300 guys with rifles in their hands”
The Polish media are already analyzing possible scenarios for the actions of the “Wagnerites” against Poland and come to the conclusion that they are doomed to failure.
OKO Press journalist Witold Głowacki considers the threat of a “rally of 300 guys with rifles in their hands to the conditional Zambrow” (a city near the border between Poland and Belarus) absurd, primarily for purely military reasons.
“Assuming that as many as six Wagner fighters fit in one pickup truck, they will need at least 50 cars in any case. This is a large convoy – with a minimum distance between cars of 20 meters required by the military, its length will be at least 1, 2 km.
To move “to Zambrow” in pickup trucks, the Wagnerites first had to capture one of the border crossings east of Bialystok – either in Kuznica or in Bobrovniki. If these “pickup trucks” were completely all-terrain vehicles, then one can still imagine forcing barriers at the border – in which forest or field-meadow section of it. This could be done with a bulldozer or a tank as a battering ram, or with explosives.
But not imperceptibly. The Polish-Belarusian border is currently very carefully guarded by border patrols and TBOT (Territorial Defense Troops), drones and electronic devices that allow monitoring the border strip and recording movement and heat signatures. There is not the slightest chance that 300 people in 50 heavy vehicles will be able to covertly cross it. It is all the more impossible if you choose the option of forcing one of the border crossings – here, of course, you will need to fight against the Polish border guards and customs officers.
Both would be an open attack on Poland – enough to admit that the war has begun and justify recourse to Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which obliges our NATO allies to provide assistance.
What will happen in the next minutes and hours after the “300 guys with rifles on pickup trucks” finally break through the border?
Due to the large number of invading groups, the forces of the border troops and the BOT located on the border would probably have been ordered to avoid combat contact with the enemy and concentrate on monitoring his actions.
A standby pair of F-16 fighters could come into action to guard the border, most likely to collect the information needed to carry out a more massive air attack, if such an order was given. Somewhere in the area of the entrances to the S-8 highway near Bialystok, the path of the “Wagnerites” would eventually be blocked by units of the Polish Army stationed in this area.
The first of these, most likely, will be the 18th Bialystok Reconnaissance Regiment, which is one of three such elite units of the Polish army, reporting directly to the commander-in-chief of the armed forces. The Bialystok regiment has extensive Afghan experience, well-trained fighters and relatively heavy weapons for a reconnaissance unit. In addition, the specifics of the training of this unit include the fight against armed groups penetrating the territory of Poland in the context of irregular operations. The strength of the regiment is quite sufficient to deal with the “300 guys in pickup trucks”, even taking into account the combat effectiveness of the Wagner mercenaries is above average. In Bialystok (and in some other places in the Podlaskie Voivodeship) a new Polish division is being formed, partly on the basis of existing units – the 1st Infantry Division of the Legion.
“Raid on Zambrow” in the real world, most likely, would have ended somewhere east or northeast of Bialystok with a short fierce battle in the forests of Knyszynska Forest. Considering that Russia and Belarus could end up in a state of open war with NATO as a result, it is impossible to imagine that both Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenko would give such an order – without the slightest chance of achieving any military advantage,” Glovatsky said.
He is sure that Poland has enough forces to cope with a possible violation of the border of the country by “Wagnerites” – or any other formations of the Russian or Belarusian army or special forces. However, the real likelihood that something like this could happen is very small.
“Wagnerites” are identified by NATO as part of the Russian military machine, closely associated with the regular Russian army, and their possible attack on the Polish border will be sufficient reason to activate Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, i.e. the start of a global conflict. So Zambrow can sleep peacefully,” Glovatsky said.
We have already written in detail about the fact that the actions of the “Wagnerites” against Poland are meaningless from any point of view for Putin and Russia. However, it was noted that under certain circumstances this could turn out to be far from empty threats. Just like the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which no one believed in, eventually became a reality. We analyzed in detail the prospects for the development of the situation here .
“Kaczyński counts on the pre-election “flag effect”
In the context of skepticism about the reality of the threat to Poland from the “Wagnerites”, the Polish media are spreading the point of view that escalating the situation is beneficial primarily to the ruling Law and Justice party, which wants to strengthen its position before the parliamentary elections in October this year.
“The Poles should remember that the authorities are much more afraid of the upcoming elections than the Wagnerites. There are no real grounds to assert that the presence of the Wagnerites in Belarus increases the level of threat to Poland. By scaring the Poles, Kaczynski is counting on the pre-election “flag effect” that focuses citizens around the current ruling party in the face of a threat that would be very useful for PiS. Kaczynski’s party started the election campaign unsuccessfully and still cannot give it a new impetus. So why not bet on the Wagnerites in such a situation?” writes Głowacki.
According to Gazeta Wyborcza columnist Dominika Velowijska, the Kremlin and Lukashenka pass the ball to Kaczynski with their threats.
“The more reports of Wagner attacks on our borders, the greater the temptation to introduce a state of emergency in part of Poland,” she said.
It should be noted that PiS representatives and President Andrzej Duda say that “today they see no reason to introduce a state of emergency.”
“I hear the voices of publicists that PiS has no ideas for an election campaign. I’m afraid that Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenko are also fueling this campaign,” the journalist writes.
In her opinion, Russia for many years deliberately pursued a policy of the collapse of the European Union, helping Marine Le Pen and other right-wing politicians or influencing the outcome of the Brexit referendum in the UK.
“It would be naive to think that Putin does not want to influence the outcome of the elections in our country. I will make a reservation that such statements as “the PiS government are Putin’s agents” are nonsense. Nevertheless, it is possible that agents of influence are trying to influence the Polish policy, creating an anti-European lobby in Poland,” Wielowijska concludes.
The program director of the Collegium for Eastern Europe, Adam Balzer, in a commentary to Polish Radio, also believes that Law and Justice is actively using the narrative of threats from the east in its election campaign.
because, as various sociological surveys show, in Poland a significant group of voters makes a decision in the last week before voting. It cannot be ruled out that the authorities will decide that it is better to hold elections a little later. This would be a decision that would provoke an increase in internal tension in Poland. Personally, I think that such a scenario is unlikely, since I am somewhat pessimistic about the possibility of a victory for the liberal opposition in the elections,” says Balzer.
According to Gazeta Wyborcza, the opposition is sure that Kaczynski wants to use the rumors about provocations of the Wagner group on the border as an excuse to disrupt the elections.
Radosław Sikorski, MEP for the Civic Coalition, former Minister of National Defense and Minister of Foreign Affairs, tweeted: “Kaczyński is trying to pave the way for a state of emergency and suspension of elections. If we let him.”
And two days later, after Prime Minister Morawiecki said “It’s too early to decide on a state of emergency,” Sikorsky summed up on Twitter: “So they’re plotting it.”
Lawyer Roman Gertich, a former deputy prime minister in Kaczynski’s government, also suggested that the PiS leader is ready for any solution.
“Kaczyński has no intention of voluntarily relinquishing power. He already knows that the elections are being lost, or at least he knows that there is such a high probability,” he tweeted.
The Polish authorities are already threatened with the Maidan.
“Mr. Kaczynski, if under the pretext of some kind of provocation or actions of your allies from the east, you try to steal elections from us, we will arrange a Maidan for you,” Gertich tweeted.
Krzysztof Smiszek, a Polish MP from the left, sees the situation in much the same way.
“They (the authorities – Ed.) are capable of violating all the rules of democracy, the rule of law, even the Constitution. They do what no lawyer could dream of, so the state of emergency in Poland is a cosmic scenario, but not impossible,” says Krzysztof Smishek.
He is sure that PiS politicians will want to keep power at any cost.
“They will stop at nothing to do this. Therefore, I do not rule out that they will try to take advantage of the situation in Russia and Belarus, which will become political gold for them,” he told Gazeta Vyborchaya.
For his part, opposition MP Grzegorz Schetyna, a former interior and foreign minister, adds that if the ruling party’s ratings continue to fall, “any scenario is possible.”
Schetyna believes that Kaczynski is obsessed with defeat in the elections and will do everything to avoid it.
“He is capable of introducing a state of emergency, and this is a scenario of violating elementary rules, and I believe that we will not allow it to be implemented,” he said.
According to the latest opinion polls, PiS has about 30%, and the opposition Civic Platform of former Prime Minister Donald Tusk breathes down their backs with the support of 25-27% of voters.
Support for PiS has long fallen below 40%, and before the start of the election campaign, it sank even more, when the party, according to experts, could not offer anything new, except for increasing children’s payments from 500 to 800 zlotys.
Tusk’s associates promise to tie the minimum wage to the average wage, simplify business taxation, pay extra to grandmothers who help raise their grandchildren, and introduce a four-day work week.
The Peasant Party and the new political force “Poland 2050” by TV presenter Shimon Golovnya is gaining 10-13% of the vote.
The ultra-right “Confederation” has every chance to get into the new Sejm – it is promised 10% of the votes. By the way, this is the only political force that calls into question assistance to Ukraine in the confrontation with Russia.
By the way, a number of experts believe that with its threats against Poland, Russia is trying to reduce support for Ukraine among the Poles on the eve of the elections and increase the rating of those forces that oppose the continuation of assistance to Kyiv.
“Parliamentary elections will be held in autumn in Poland. Both Putin and Lukashenko are trying to influence them, including by threatening to force voters to go in the “right” direction, that is, towards the forces that, in the election campaign, declare that Poland’s role in the conflict is inappropriate and it should be abandoned in order to prevent the Third World War,” says Nizhnikov.
Source : CTPAHA.UA